Value of HP "collectibles" heading south?



#2

This ebay auction for a nice HP-10 ended with no bidders. Although I realize that many bidders don't like auctions that start at a high value, $300 for a HP-10 in what appears to be excellent condition seems quite reasonable to me. I paid a bit more than that 6 years ago on ebay for a similar looking HP-10.

NIB 32SII calculators sell for $250 on ebay these days and they have near zero collectible value (but very high usable value, obviously). So I don't think that it's for lack of wealthy enough bidders that this HP-10 went unclaimed. I suspect that the value of HP calculators as collectibles has fallen, and I'm not at all happy about that!

Edited: 8 Sept 2006, 2:04 a.m.


#3

Hi, Katie:

Katie posted:

    " suspect that the value of HP calculators as collectibles has fallen, and I'm not at all happy about
    that!"

      Well, I'm sorry but that's only to be expected. It's obvious that the only people who are interested at all in vintage HP calculators are the old breed, the ones like us that found them amazing and almost out of reach in our youth, then have become old enough and wealthy enough to reminisce about them and get as many as we care to, so that we can at last have what we couldn't before, and we can indulge in some fond remembrances while admiring their quality.

      These traits are not inherited by the new generations, even our own children, which actually couldn't care less about old calculators, not to mention "RPN". At most, they'll be mildly interested in daddy's antiques, but only because daddy seems to have a crush on them calculators and insists on proselitizing to them children with that RPN thing. At the very best, they'll think these machines are moderately 'cool', and perhaps they might be 'coerced' into using one at school, for a while ... But they'll feel nowhere near the utter passion we had for them, so, in time, they'll mostly forget about them completely, just bothering to eventually put them on eBay, after their old man's passed away, to see if someone will take them and provide some good money.

      This being so, and with the recent proliferation of extremely good emulators/simulators, such as Nonpareil, Emu71, Emu42, V41, Free42, HP-71X, etc., which even in some cases will perfectly run in the smallest PDA devices, and which in all cases are many orders of magnitude faster and RAM-capable than the physical machines, plus the added convenience of running in a PC-like environment, means that even old-timers as ourselves might find it more convenient to use the emulator than the actual calculator. Just as an example, I find Thomas Okken's Free42 running on a small PDA much more convenient, useful, and easy to use than a real, physical HP42S.

      The obvious predicted trend is then: vintage HP calcs have probably reached their summit at eBay, and from now on their value will slowly but steadily decrease to the point of finding no takers at all unless the prices are extremely low or some real curator wants that particular model for a real, full-fledged museum. And there aren't that many.

      Myself, I'm not worried at all. I only have a few HP calculators of a very few models, strictly the ones I like. They're for my own pleasure and, except for some redundant ones, will never be for sale, so I don't care at all if their prices drop to zero, minus one, or some imaginary value. They were never meant as an investment or a quick buck.

Best regards from V.

Edited: 8 Sept 2006, 5:52 a.m.


#4

Hi Valentin.
You said that:

Quote:
...even our own children, which actually couldn't care less about old calculators, not to mention "RPN". At most, they'll be mildly interested in daddy's antiques, but only because daddy seems to have a crush on them calculators and insists on proselitizing to them children with that RPN thing. At the very best, they'll think these machines are moderately 'cool', and perhaps they might be 'coerced' into using one at school, for a while ... But they'll feel nowhere near the utter passion we had for them



Sadly I have to agree with your statement - I don't expect my 2,5 years old

son is going (in a remote future) to self-develop an interest to those beautiful machines, unless....

Unless we could find out a way to let them understand what the "value"

(remember my old thread?) of those strange machines is.

I'm not talking about "telling tales", but, if we are convinced that,

for instance, RPN logic may be helpful to approach and better understand

math problems or calculation, that one could be a lever for spawning some interest...

Do you definitely believe the "value" of HP machines is "doomed to extinction"?

Best regards.

Giancarlo

#5

Hi!

Quote:
... I don't expect my 2,5 years old son is going (in a remote future) to self-develop an interest to those beautiful machines,...

I have been trying to raise an interest for calculators in my (soon 7 years old) son by giving him toy calculators since he was very young (thanks to "Jogibogi" who supplied me with all kinds of electronic educational toys). He used to enjoy opening the parcels containing my eBay-prey with me, but lately, all he says is: "Oh no, not just another calculator, when are you going to buy me a Gameboy?"

So, if his future development will share a parallel with mine, he might be collecting Gameboys in 30 years time, auctioning off my calculators to pay for them ;-)

Luckily, there is a difference between generations!

Greetings, Max

NB: The only calculators he still likes to play with are the Ti-92 and hp-28 (and similar), because he can write texts with them, which seems to be far more interesting than numbers!

Edited: 8 Sept 2006, 8:37 a.m.

#6

Hi, Valentin --

Let me offer kudos for yet another splendid short essay!

Quote:
...It's obvious that the only people who are interested at all in vintage HP calculators are the old breed, the ones like us that found them amazing and almost out of reach in our youth, then have become old enough and wealthy enough to reminisce about them and get as many as we care to, so that we can at last have what we couldn't before, and we can indulge in some fond remembrances while admiring their quality.

There's a lot of truth in that perceptive observation. I'd concur that most regulars here are in their 40's (as I am), which is just the right age to have remembered -- but not always to have obtained -- the groundbreaking calculator models of the 1970's as well as the refined and mature models of the 1980's.

A similar dynamic has unfolded in the US the past few years, as the hottest and most valuable vintage automobiles have been the "muscle cars" of the 1960's and early 1970's, sporting 300-450 horsepower from their large V-8 engines. Compared to modern cars, they don't do anything particularly well except to accelerate in a straight line. Some are well-styled; others are not. The rarest of them in good condition have fetched more than US$1 million.

Teenage boys and young men lusted after them back in the day; now as affluent middle-aged men, they can "turn back the clock" and recapture some lost youth by getting one. Those who accept the automobiles for what they are, shouldn't be disappointed. Those who expect nirvana from obsolete technology degraded by use and passage of time, will be.

However, our collector hobby differs from theirs in a few ways:

  1. Calculators are cheaper, and take less space and upkeep.
  2. Calculators don't rust or get damaged as easily.
  3. The best vintage calculators are still better-engineered and more usable than modern ones!


Shifting topics, here's my "take" on market value of HP collectible calculators:

US eBay prices are still strong for the best models of the 1980's, such as the HP-15C. I have noticed that certain items (e.g., HP-16C, HP-71B Math ROM, HP-IL, and HP-41 Navigation Pac) are more plentiful than several years ago, as high prices have drawn additional supply "out of the woodwork", so to speak. This has kept a lid on today's prices.

Prices for the 1970's vintage LED models will probably decline. They're simply less-capable and more hassle than the advanced products released from 1979 onward...

-- KS


Edited: 9 Sept 2006, 1:27 a.m.


#7

re: "I'd concur that most regulars here are in their 40's (as I am), which is just the right age to have remembered -- but not always to have obtained -- the groundbreaking calculator models of the 1970's as well as the refined and mature models of the 1980's."

Some of us a rather older - I'm 60 - and I think folks like me had more fun (or at least excitement!) when the very first HPs came out. The appearance of a calculator that could do trig/exp/log/ln and scientific notation was truly groundbreaking. I was in my last year as a graduate student when the HP35 appeared. I was in nirvana! I must have spent several days over Christmas 1972 using my Dad's (he's a mechanical engineer) brand new '35 calulating numbers for my thesis. I had several thousand numbers (interferometer correlation coefficients) that had to be converted to correlated flux density. That required two calibration factors (one for each telescope that, depended on antenna position so they were all different), and an overall conversion factor, plus sometimes an additional correction for low amplitude, most of it inside a square root. Despite the non-programmability of the '35, I developed quite a rhythm of entering numbers and using STO/RCL to apply my own "program" to all my data.

Within a year, the price of the '35 dropped from $395 to $295 and mere graduate students could afford one - if you spent a month and a half of support stipend (I don't remember how I paid the rent that month!). It was so worth it.

#8

Hi, Karl:

Karl posted:

    "Let me offer kudos for yet another splendid short essay!"

      Thank you very much, you're very kind, as always.

    "I'd concur that most regulars here are in their 40's (as I am), which is just the right age to have remembered -- but not always to have obtained -- the
    groundbreaking calculator models of the 1970's as well as the refined and mature models of the 1980's."

      Absolutely. I'm 48 right now and was just 17 or so when the HP-25 first appeared. It was my very first HP calculator, and the extremely pleasant memories of the time when I just got it and proceeded to learn and enjoy its capabilities will never let me. That made me an HP calc admirer for life. You can read a detailed and fond recollection of this experience of mine in my Datafile article "Long Live the HP-25!" (V25 N1 P25).

    "3.The best vintage calculators are still better-engineered and more usable than modern ones!"

      Again, absolutely ! The best classical models, such as the HP-15C, HP-67 and HP-71B, to name a few, can run rings around any modern offering in terms of sheer quality, durability, ergonomy, and generally utmost attention to detail and functionality. Nowadays, KinHPo offerings are so poor in all those respects as to be utterly embarrassing to us veteran HP calc lovers.

    "I have noticed that certain items (e.g., HP-16C, HP-71B Math ROM, HP-IL, and HP-41 Navigation Pac) are more
    plentiful than several years ago

      I'm a bit surprised by this statement of yours. I think I did read a posting of yours a few days ago confirming that the HP-71B Math ROM was extremely difficult to locate, even at eBay. I own three physical Math ROMs, by the way, one for each of my mint HP-71Bs


    "Prices for the 1970's vintage LED models will probably decline. They're simply less-capable and more hassle than the advanced products released from 1979 onward..."

      I think that prices of vintage HP calcs will go absolutely south as soon as the old breed simply passes away and there's no next generation interested in such old (and probably non-functioning by then), obsolete gadgets. The odd ultra-mint model may find some interested curator, but the vast majority will gather dust at the best, as a remembrance of their late owner, or will be simply thrown out with the rest of the worthless junk, to make place.

      My advice: if you have them for your very own pleasure, prices are no concern whatsoever; but if there's some investment point to it, sell most of them within the next 10 years at most.

Best regards from V.

#9

Hi, Valentin --

You stated, "I think I did read a posting of yours a few days ago confirming that the HP-71B Math ROM was extremely difficult to locate, even at eBay."

Several years ago, I mentioned in the Forum that my "half-hearted searching" at eBay and MoHPC classifieds had been fruitless, and you advised good-naturedly that I try a "full-hearted search". At that time, a MoHPC regular stepped up and offered to sell me one, and I accepted. But until a few months ago, I had never seen one publicly offered, even packaged with an HP-71B. Within the last six months, though, a few have been sold on US eBay.

My full statement on 7 Sept 2006, under subject "HP-71B manuals and Math ROM"

Quote:

As of several years ago, I'd never seen an HP-71B Math ROM on US eBay or the MoHPC classifieds. After I mentioned this, a Forum participant was generous enough to sell me one, with manual.

In the past year, I've seen four Math ROM's sold on US eBay, but all without manuals. (A scan of the manual is available on the MoHPC CD/DVD set.) The ROM's each sold for less than US$150.


As for the old guard dying out and the calculators ceasing to function, it won't happen for a while. All of my units (except two old-design HP-34C's) manufactured as far back as late 1971, still work perfectly. "Knock on wood" and hope for the best...

Best regards,

-- KS

#10

Hi, Giancarlo:

Giancarlo posted:

    "... Unless we could find out a way to let them understand what the "value" (remember my old thread?) of those strange machines is."

      Pointless. These "strange machines" have very little real usefulness in this era of ever-smaller-and-capable laptops and PDAs, and will have even less in the very near future. With PDAs now connecting you to the Internet on the go, everywhere, you can summon a great calculator in emulated form anytime and anywhere you feel like using one, which won't be very frequently at that.

    "I'm not talking about "telling tales", but, if we are convinced that, for instance, RPN logic may be helpful to approach and better understand math problems or calculation, that one could be a lever for spawning some interest...

      There's a logical fallacy here. The fact that you're convinced of something doesn't necessarily make it true. You might not be "telling tales" as far as you are concerned, but what you say will nevertheless be a "tale". As you probably know, I don't think RPN logic is useful in the least to modern students, and coercing them to use RPN/RPL machines only succeeds in putting them at a disadvantage compared to their classmates, despite what some wishful RPN-loving fathers would have you believe. RPN was superb in its own time, when each and every 7-byte register available costed a lot of money. Now the vast majority does perfectly well without such obsolete nuisances.

      If in doubt, think about the slide rule: almost every argument people said then about the convenience and the "understanding" you would achieve by doing your computations using a slide rule, as opposed to having some of those new "electronic calculators" digest the numbers for you, proved just wishful thinking and a retarded strategy, at the end of the day. There's a time for everything, and the time for RPN is no more. It will die with us.

    "Do you definitely believe the "value" of HP machines is "doomed to extinction"?"

      Absolutely. Within a few decades most if not all vintage HP models will stop functioning no matter how well cared for, there will be no spare parts for them once cannibalizing older models is over, and there will be no interest for them, at all. Your calculators will 'die' with you. Perhaps your children will keep one or two, strictly as a memento. But eventually, all of them will be at the nearest dump.

      So forget about leaving a 'lasting HP/RPN legacy' to your children, let them be, let them find their own collectibles and their very own valuable things and methods. Then simply enjoy your beloved vintage HP calcs while you can.

Best regards from V.

#11

Quote:
If in doubt, think about the slide rule: almost every argument people said then about the convenience and the "understanding" you would achieve by doing your computations using a
slide rule, as opposed to having some of those new "electronic calculators" digest the numbers for you, proved just wishful thinking and a retarded strategy, at the end of the day.
There's a time for everything, and the time for RPN is no more. It will die with us.

I'm one of those who still thinks that using slide rules is a good way to get kids to understand concepts like the difference between accuracy and precision, as well as honing skills for estimation and a "feel" for recognizing errors (especially order-of-magnitude errors). That's why, in addition to teaching my sons RPN (which both of them have used exclusively for several years), I also gave them slide rules and taught them how to use them. Obviously some teachers feel the same way I do, because there's a "Slide Rules for Students" program that furnishes slide rules (free of charge) to math teachers who want to work slide rule instruction into their curricula. Teachers who have participated in the program have reported that most of their students were fascinated and enthusiastic to learn that so much "complicated" math could be done so easily with such "prinmitive" tools.


#12

I agree that there is value to the slide rule for exactly the reasons you state, but I'd like to illuminate part of the reason the SR has some instructional value: the physical nature of the logarithm. The idea of the log as a curve, as an ever-decreasing spacing of lines, as well as a "black box" function is useful. For one thing it helps the students to make connections in their heads to natural observations etc.

Yet too much time spent on the SR would be a waste of time. It is a good "lesson" but certainly not a useful method anymore. Except that some of the circular slide rules from engine manufacturers etc are still useful and cool!


#13

In the "olden" days most of us were introduced to logarithms and a book of logarithm tables well before we were introduced to the slide rule. What you are proposing is the other way around. If you want to teach logarithms you can do it better than with a slide rule by using the logarithm functions on any scientific calculator. You also have the option to teach natural logarithms with the calculator which is difficult with a slide rule unless you have access to the log log slide rules.


#14

Hi Palmer,

Yes your point is true; but the whole thing is "backwards" and so you use the strengths of the slide rule to reinforce and or introduce or give a different way of looking at those concepts for which the SR provideds some illumination.

Indeed I see what you mean aqbout log-logs and the tables are a good tool too!

What is interesting is that in the days of log tables and calculators, I would hazard to sugfgest that the average engineer or student was more familiar with the log properties than today, nerely because these properties were used more regularly as an aid to rapid computation.


#15

You are, of course, correct in saying that in those days we had to be familiar with the use of logarithms because we HAD to use them. Every engineering student had to have a slide rule AND a book including such things as

a. 5 or 6 place log tables

b. 5 or 6 place log sin, log cos and log tan tables

c. logs of e^x

d. logs of the hyperbolic functions

and so on, on and on .

In those days an engineer had to consider whether he REALLY wanted to carry five or six digits as opposed to the three he could carry with a slide rule.

#16

Hi, Wayne:

Wayne posted:

    "That's why, in addition to teaching my sons RPN (which both of
    them have used exclusively for several years), I also gave them slide rules and taught them how to use them"

      Good for you.

    "There's a "Slide Rules for Students" program that furnishes slide rules (free of charge) to math teachers who want to work slide rule instruction into their curricula."

      I did google for "slide rules for students" and got a grand total of 20 results, only three of them sufficiently unique. Seems it's not that popular or well-known a project, at least as far as Google is concerned.

      Googling for "abacus for students" brings ten times as much, at 203 results. I didn't try "finger-counting for students" but I'm sure it does have its instructional advantages as well ...

Best regards from V.
#17

<<...These traits are not inherited by the new generations, even our own children, which actually couldn't care less about old calculators...>>

...I think that the issue is a little confused, here. The value of a given HP calculator, new or old, is simply a function of supply and demand. If supply is high (market is currently saturated) or demand is falling (us "older generation" folks are dying off or have collected what we mostly want), then of course prices will fall. My guess is that like any potential collectable, we're looking at a somewhat cyclical pattern, perhaps with a shallow downward trend. Prices will likely rise again...!

However, a child's interest in RPN, computing in general, or dedicated (physical) calculators is a whole different issue and is driven by the prevailing circumstances. The simple fact is that the calculation of anything is not an end unto itself... it's always part of some larger activity, like "how much do I owe," or "what is the mass of that star?" To the degree that the larger activity is hosted on a capable platform, calculation simply becomes a component of the larger activity... a separate, physical device to calculate is simply no longer necessary!

Finally, another very important factor is the user's interface with the "calculating component." Again, the simple fact is that new calculating approaches offer more natural (and more intuitive) interfaces to the user than any historical calculator. That's why the younger generation isn't overly interested in Dad's or Mom's HP. Good as we thought RPN was, there are better things available now...

#18

Hi!

Quote:
Although I realize that many bidders don't like auctions that start at a high value, $300 for a HP-10 in what appears to be excellent condition seems quite reasonable to me.

Here in Europe, the prices still seem to be rising (slowly) and we have not reached American levels yet. There have been a couple of HP-10s on German eBay this year, and they went for around 200 Euros each (still too much for me). A year ago, they would have sold for half of this amount.

Quote:
I suspect that the value of HP calculators as collectibles has fallen, and I'm not at all happy about that!

Maybe the market is saturated at the moment? The number of collectors is small and more or less stable as it seems, so once everybody has every calculator he (or she :-) ) is interested in, the laws of economy regain control. (Which is good for people like me, who have some gaps to fill yet).

I share my office with an engineering student these days who is doing his masters thesis in our company, and when he noticed that I have a different calculator on my desk every day (which took about two weeks - obviously, LED calculators all look the same to mere mortals), all he had to say about it was: "You are crazy!". It seems that the iPod-generation is not (yet?) interested in vintage technology. Get them interested (the article in Scientific American about the Curta multiplied its value by a factor of 3 or 4!) and the prices will rise again...

Greetings, Max

NB: Thank you very, very, very much for maintaining your website with the calculator manuals! One of these days, when I find the time, I will look through my collection to see, if I can contribute in some way.

Edited: 8 Sept 2006, 5:26 a.m.

#19

I think it's just luck of the draw (and a stupid opening bid). I sold a defective HP-10 recently and it brought well over $200 (with a $25 opener).


#20

I've followed the prices of HP41 and related PACS for 6 weeks and I've been surpised at how much prices can vary. Price differences for apparently identical items of as much as 75% to 100%. There is a lot of variability in the prices.


#21

Quote:
I've followed the prices of HP41 and related PACS for 6 weeks and I've been surpised at how much prices can vary. Price differences for apparently identical items of as much as 75% to 100%. There is a lot of variability in the prices.

Have you correlated your history with close time? Create 4 sets of results based on close time: weekday/day, weekday/evening, weekend/day, and weekend/evening. Bidding frenzies run high in the evenings. I would be curious if you see the same with your data.

"extreme mental agitation; wild excitement or derangement" -- dictionary.com "frenzy"

#22

I have kind of been watching this same thing happen as well. The older HP's (mostly LED versions) are in fact declining in value. The newer ones, such as the 32's are still being sought after as viable work calculators. As a previous poster indicated, there are other ways of doing the number crunching. (Although I disagree with the comment that they are better ;))

On the plus side, hopefully this will shake out some of the HP sellers who sell at ridiculously high prices - as has been previously mentioned on this message board.

Ultimately though, I don't know that the reduction in prices saddens me all that much - see, no doubt like many that haunt this board, I didn't buy my calcs for their increasing historical value. I bought them because I really do enjoy using them as part of a problem solving routine I have established over the years. It may very well be that now I can more easily afford a 2nd or 3rd 42S to play with and take some pressure off.


#23

I don't buy and sell on ebay with the intent of making a profit. I do buy and sell as a means of trading up to nicer calculators in my collection, and sometimes profit by doing so but sometimes not. I really do like to have all these old machines and I keep them functional, on display and use them. My disappointment in the lack of monetary appreciation is not from an investment standpoint (I don't plan to sell off my collection) it's just that I'd like to see these things appreciate in value in the minds of future generations. In other words, I'd like to see them on Antiques Road Show some day.


#24

Katie; Present company excluded of course, most of us here might be seen "on Antiques Road Show" next week. Come to think of it; that might just be a good subtitle for HHC 2006. -d


#25

It sounds like the "early bird special" dinners and the nearby restaurants are going to be pretty geeky. :)

#26

I just watched an auction for an HP 11C close on eBay. It went for $520. The calculator was US-made, and in decent shape with the manual. I was stunned by this price. So, quickly, I pulled my 11C out of the case and looked it over. Mine is well used, but I also have the manual, and even the box. Plus mine is also US-made and has a lower s/n than this one that just sold for so much on eBay. I'm wondering if it might have just been a bidding war between the two highest bidders?

First thing I did was check the "prices and rarity" page here, but I saw no comments indicating special rarity. Next thing I did was email the seller, asking him if he knew why it sold for so much. He was as clueless as I am, and even asked me to let him know if I find out why it sold for so much. :)

Now, I'm not particularly interested in selling my 11c -- I bought it new back in 1985 or so, and it is still my favorite calculator, despite having a graphing Casio and a TI84+ and probably a dozen others laying around the place. But I sure would like to know more about this.

Can someone enlighten me about this?

Best,

Michael

Edited: 9 Sept 2006, 4:50 p.m.


#27

It all depends on what the sale price is of the machine and the mindset of the purchaser. An example would be a couple of auctions currently running on EBay. An HP 48SX with a equation library card and 32K RAM card sold this morning for $76. Another 48SX (no cards) has a beginning bid price of $124.99. Someone may bid for that and the price will increase. Of course, I watch the 48GX's bid for $250+ and wonder if I should stick mine on EBay. I would probably regret doing such a thing.

In my opinion, I think HP collectors will decrease since the number of HP users are declining.

When I attended a major university in the 80's, the HP 48SX was THE calculator to use. Now, I am attending a local engineering university where THE calculator to use is the TI 89/89 Platinum. In fact, it is required for Calculus I and II. HP's are rarely seen in the junior and senior level courses. My professors have seen my 48GX and made comments of approval of it. One in particular actually stopped class to tell everyone that if you want a great ENGINEERING calculator, get a Hewlett-Packard 48GX.

You can see the dividing line of sorts in the engineering company I am employed with. The designers and engineers that are in their mid 30's and older are using HP's (48SX/GX, 41). The younger ones are using TI-89's.

I am 37 years old. I love using my HP's, even the 50G. The 33S I tolerate. I'm becoming more of a HP collector because I recognize the older HP calculators are a testament to the mindset of innovation and quality that used to be the keystone of Hewlett-Packard.

I would like for HP to remember that the next time they design a new series of calculators. Perhaps, when they adhere to that philosophy again, they will regain the marketshare from TI.

#28

I don't think one can base an opinion like this on just one sale. If he relists it, at $300 buy-it-now, it might sell in 30 minutes. Just depends on who's watching, when something comes online.

I have seen prices going up, not down.

Edited: 8 Sept 2006, 7:13 p.m.

#29

I take it that you would consider this seller an optimist them... (not me BTW)...

http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/HP-25-LED-calculator-from-early-1975-boxed-excellent_W0QQitemZ320025080037QQihZ011QQcategoryZ3294QQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem


#30

Don't underestimate the value of that box!


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