An Updated Version of the 15c Would Make Money



#44

There's a day still left and this one is over $500!

Disclaimer: I am not a party to this auction in any way:

http://cgi.ebay.com/HP15C-Calculator-HP-15C-Hewlett-Packard-15C_W0QQitemZ150043675139QQihZ005QQcategoryZ58039QQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

The powers that be at kinHPo should look at this as hard evidence that bringing back an updated version of the 15C would make some money.


#45

There is no reason to beg HP. They are a dying company and the patents have all expired. Someone should copy the HP-15 and mass produce it. It would sell like hotcakes for $100.


#46

It's obviously possible to clone Voyagers, because Aurora recently marketed a 12C clone, the FN-1000, which sold for a fraction of the 12C price ($24.99 at Fry's). However, the FN-1000 never became widely available, and it seems to have been discontinued.

The 12C was (and is) far more popular than the 15C. If Aurora can't sell 12C clones for $25, then realistically there may not be much demand for 15C clones at $100.

It's true that old HP calculators sell for hundreds of dollars on eBay. But so do old slide rules. Yet this doesn't mean that the market is hungering for new mass-produced K&E clones.

Edited: 15 Oct 2006, 10:53 p.m.


#47

Very well put Norris!!! The comparison between the HP-12C and the Aurora clone makes a good point!

Namir

Edited: 15 Oct 2006, 11:17 p.m.


#48

Well, I'd also hope that whoever put the Aurora clone out had the pants sued off them.

In the Aurora manual, there were still instances where the text read HP12c ! The editor didn't even get a good massive search/replace done right.

Again, if the 15c had sold well enough, it would still be made today. HP is not that stupid. Really.

A couple of dozen auctions every month where a 15c sells for > $200 or more, does not mean HP could reproduce the 15c and sell them for $100 each and make it worth doing.

This has been covered multiple times here. While I don't see it happening, that does not mean that I wouldn't want HP to do it, but that's sentiment and emotion talking, not business sense.

And, without business sense, HP's calculator group will go the way of Rockwell's.


#49

How many 15C do you think HP (or anyone else for that matter) would sell for $100?


#50

Maybe a few thousand.

I would think someone like HP would need 20,000-30,000 per year to make it worth doing.

Just guessing.

Assume it costs HP $3,000,000 in development costs to recreate it. Assume they make $10 each. Total guesses there. Have no earthly idea.

Breakeven is 300,000 units, not counting the time value of money.

Just don't see it.

And, even if the calculator division wanted to do it, I would suspect at some point plans have to pass up the mangement chain where you might end up with managers who would not think it a prudent use of funds or too risky.

It's just not a "home run" type of suggestion.

#51

I'd be delighted to see an updated 15C too. I also think such a machine is unlikely. However I haven't given up hope that HP might try to bring some of the elements that made the 15C such a nice calculator forward into a 21st century machine. In order to be worth $100.00, such a machine would have to be significantly better than the 33S, which goes for $50.00 list. My opinion is that a landscape mode programmable RPN capable machine, with many of the deficiencies of the 32SII/33S programming environment addressed, with the good features of those machines retained, with medium level 2D graphing capability, but no symbolic capability or RPL, and with good connectivity and interoperation with desktop PCs and laptops would be a viable machine. I have nothing but my geek's intuition to base this opinion on, so I wouldn't take it to the bank.

This opinion is not based on anything HP told us at the conference. It's just my long-held wishful thinking at work. 8)

Regards

Howard

#52

Quote:
Again, if the 15c had sold well enough, it would still be made today. HP is not that stupid. Really.

Just to clarify Gene's point, 'well enough' doesn't just mean 'makes a profit'. It has to make more profit than whatever else HP could be doing with the same resources.

This is not a theoretical concern, by the way. As I understand it, the end-of-life date for the HP-41 was determined not by the HP-41 failing to sell. Rather, the only machine in the world that could fabricate the timer chips it used was being decommissioned by NID (the Northwest IC Division co-located with Corvallis Division), since HP had no other customers for the behind-the-times chips that machine could make.

NID wanted to make better use of the space and the personnel that that machine took up, so they asked Corvallis Division for numbers for a final production run of timer chips (which was, in turn, asked of HP's main bulk customers, such as Zengrange, during 1988, which is how I heard about it).

NID made those timer chips by early 1989, and then took the fabrication machine apart and replaced it with something else they could make more money with.

That, in turn, set the end-of-life date for the HP-41 towards the end of 1989, which is why it went off the price list before its official replacement, the HP 48SX, came out in March 1990, an act that otherwise just seems like bad planning.

#53

How difficult would it be to convert a 12c to a 15c at factory level? Is there more than just re-programming the rom and marking keys and plate?


#54

Quote:
How difficult would it be to convert a 12c to a 15c at factory level? Is there more than just re-programming the rom and marking keys and plate?

As you say, there's a different ROM (the 15C had a bigger ROM than the 12C, but that might be moot now). To create that ROM, they would have to acquire the existing 15C firmware (which you shouldn't assume they have lying around in a useable form), then prototype the proposed 15C firmware for the current hardware platform, and make sure it all worked the way it was supposed to according to the user documentation.

Having done that, they would have to create artwork for a different metal overlay for the keyboard and different labelling for the keys. Additionally, they would have to create artwork for a new back plate, which has different printing on the 15C.

They might also have to commission a different metal facia for the display, and a different little HP badge; the 12C has a gold tint on all of these, and it's unlikely that HP would want this on a 15C revival, rather than the original grey metal colour. I suspect they could re-purpose parts from the platinum model for these, but even so, they would probably have to be labelled internally as different parts, so that the production lines could operate smoothly.

Note that any newly manufactured items like these would have minimum production-run quantities to make them at all, and these alone might be in the thousands.

But to bring a 15C to market now would require a few more things beyond extra parts:

  • different printed manuals
  • different printed packaging
  • the need to manage and differentiate parts and units on what was previously a single-product production line
  • the need to maintain the differentiation throughout the supply chain, so that orders for the different calculators don't get mixed up
  • different customer support
  • different marketing materials, including planning how to reach potential customers, updating HP's web sites, and updated brochures, catalogues and other collateral
  • different sales support, including sales incentives, promotions, cross-sales discounts and bundles, and internal briefs on how to sell against the competitor's products
  • different advertising
  • the management of different channels to market, such as promotions and exhibitions at engineering conferences or universities
  • separate customer and vendor sales incentives and promotions
  • the ability to take orders for the 15C from customers and vendors (which isn't automatic in a company like HP; you have to get your product into the corporate price lists for specific sales regions, which might require region-by-region negotiation with the regional sales managers)
  • separate accounting for sales and returns, so you know whether the 15C is paying its way
  • separate regulatory body certifications, such as FCC, Underwriter's Labs or the international equivalents before you can sell your product to the public
  • internal and external training materials to bring new staff up to speed on the 15C, and why they should care about it
  • management of all of the above across HP and its resellers
  • the need to negotiate with any sub-contracted partners about whatever aspects of the 15C affect them
  • amendment of contracts with those partners to deal with any changes in the relationship that stem from their involvement in the creation, support or distribution of the 15C

I'm not trying to be funny here, by the way; this list is off the top of my head, and I'm sure is nowhere near comprehensive enough to account for everything HP would have to do to revive the 15C using the 12C as a basis.

But I hope it shows that doing so is not a trivial exercise, and perhaps presents a little insight into how hard it is to bring a consumer product to market.


#55

Don't forget a new LCD display. The 12cp does not have the proper annunciators for the 15c.


#56

Rats. I had the display in an earlier edit of the post, but apparently removed it. Thanks for pointing out the omission.

#57

Quote:
If Aurora can't sell 12C clones for $25, then realistically there may not be much demand for 15C clones at $100.

The Aurora clones the 12C's functionality, but completely ignores the aesthetics of prestige. This was a major error, because the 12C was carefully designed to look right to financial people, with its uncluttered keyboard, and gold fascia and display.

Whether or not you agree that Swiss watches are better than Casios, looking at the wrists of financial people shows that they think they are, and they're the people who've been buying the 12C for a quarter of a century. None of them would risk putting an Aurora down in a room full of 12C users for fear of being thought of as unsuccessful. The 12C's $50 or $100 premium in price would be worth the peace of mind to them, just as it is for the fancy watch or the decent suit.

Quote:
It's true that old HP calculators sell for hundreds of dollars on eBay. But so do old slide rules. Yet this doesn't mean that the market is hungering for new mass-produced K&E clones.

A major factor buoying up eBay prices is the monotonically-increasing rarity of 15Cs; there will be fewer in the world tomorrow than today. Freely-available new 15Cs would not be able to reach those prices, because the supply would have opened up, and there would be more tomorrow than today. As others have suggested, to have a viable market, the 15C would have to be sellable at a price people would pay today on the assumption that they weren't going to run out any time soon; I suspect that would not exceed $50.


#58

Quote:
I suspect that would not exceed $50.

Why? HP didn't seem to have any trouble selling them before for $135. I don't see why someone who wants a 15C wouldn't be reasonably happy to buy a new one now for at least $70 (same price as 12C), and possibly more.

In other words, though volume depends on pricing, I don't think the volume for a new 15C is going to be much different at $50, $70, or even $100 price points. The demand curve is going to be relatively flat through that region, and start dropping away to zero somewhere above $100.

On the other hand, if they could be sold for $25, the volume would probably be *much* higher. But it would be very difficult to cost reduce it enough to sell it for $25. You'd wind up with a calculator that looks and feels like a $25 calculator, not like a Voyager.


#59

The 15C's size to power ratio made it literally dynamite in a small package. That, in my opinion, was one of the strong attractions of it. I would have no problem paying $135 for an updated version. Discerning people will always be willing to pay more for top quality, and better functionality. When I was in college I had no problem putting down $195 for a 29C, which was about 2 weeks earnings for me!

IMHO, HP's problem is that they have dis-associated themselves from the great machines of the past...the well layed out and well constructed keyboards, the RPN, etc. If HP were to ramp up quality, put the ENTER key back where it belongs, and launch a well built ad campaign linking the new updated machines with the great machines of the past, I think they would have no trouble selling them.

That's my nickel in the grass, thanks for reading.
Hal

#60

Quote:
Why? HP didn't seem to have any trouble selling them before for $135.

HP also didn't have trouble selling the 35 for $395 at one point, but that doesn't mean they could do it again today.

When the 15C was selling, what was its competition, and what alternatives were available to customers at that time?

Are those competitors and alternatives the same today?

Quote:
I don't see why someone who wants a 15C wouldn't be reasonably happy to buy a new one now for at least $70 (same price as 12C), and possibly more.

The 12C has a prestige element to it that the 15C doesn't have, and is fitted into its buying community in a way that the 15C isn't, and can't be today, because the technical landscape has changed from the 1980s. Consequently, I don't believe you can look at who buys the 12C today, and presume that that level of pricing can apply to the 15C.

Given the level of pricing HP have established for models like the 33S, I think it would be a very tough sale to position a revived 15C at or above the prices of its sibling models today, because on paper it has a noticeably poorer specification. In order to be a success, HP would have to win many new customers for the 15C that never saw the old one, and it's not clear to me how they could do this, especially at prices approaching $100.


#61

Quote:
When the 15C was selling, what was its competition, and what alternatives were available to customers at that time?

Are those competitors and alternatives the same today?


If there's anything out there for under $100 that's credible competition for a 15C, that's news to me.


#62

While I hate to pound any nails in my favorite Hp's coffin, here they are!

The Hp48Gii. Sells for less than $100 and has magnitudes of more features and speed over the Hp15c. That it doesn't fit in my pocket, doesn't mean it won't fit in a students bookbag or on a cheap (do you know any other kind?) engineers desk?

That the Hp15c (or Hp42s for that matter) isn't made is a shame since Hp still makes the business model of both (Hp12c and Hp17Bii+). And Hp offers that insult of a scientific, the Hp33s for the kiddy market (back to my poor starving student OR CHEAP engineer). Neither is likely to buy such a calculator except of course THAT IT IS the ONLY RPN pocket scientific AVAILABLE!

Actually, Hp sells the Hp33s in spite of themselves as it is the only scientific pocket programmable calculator (not graphics) available.

My rant for the day!


#63

The 48GII lists for $110. We're talking list price, not street price, since a hypothetical 15CII at a $100 list price would also have a lower street price.

The 48GII is a powerful calculator, but I certainly don't consider it a good replacement for a 15C. It's much larger, and it's a lot harder to learn to use. I'm talking about a potential customer that wants a programmable non-graphic calculator, not a fancy graphing calculator with CAS. They're two different market segments.


#64

Quote:
I'm talking about a potential customer that wants a programmable non-graphic calculator

hMMM. You might fill a stadium with all of them--a high school stadium that is.

Edited: 19 Oct 2006, 9:14 a.m. after one or more responses were posted


#65

Sadly, I think you're correct.

Perhaps a HUGE stretch there might be 10,000 buyers of an updated 15c at a list of $75-100.

That would never recover the development cost, IMO.


#66

Actually, if it's a machine running an emulator using the original 15C ROM since it's public domain... Profitability and recovery of development costs would stand a good chance, particularly for a smaller business. For HP, TI, Casio, etc. it would be a waste of time.

I doubt I'd be alone in failing to hesitate buying a couple of high-quality machines that emulate voyagers for perhaps $50 per unit so I wouldn't have to worry about anything happening to my trusty original 25-year-old HP.

#67

The Hp12c sells for $70-80 at the local office supply stores and the Hp33s, a far more capable calculator sells for $50. What price are you going to charge for the Hp15c+ again? Keep in mind THAT Hp marketing probably won't let you sell for less than the already established Hp12c. You end up with a marketing failure, plain and simple.

The Hp42s suffered from a similar fate at a far less distant past. It competed against the low end Hp48G (and Lost!). EXACTLY the same price structure you now propose.

I have two Hp42s's, one I expanded to 32K, the other, still original. Actually I am torn between the Hp15c or the Hp42s if I had to keep just a single Hp calculator. However, NEITHER has real I/O and it is a sad, sinking feeling whenever you change batteries and see a memory lost prompt. I still prefer a shirt pocket calculator, but I use / keep a graphics at my desk (okay, I use my Hp33s also).


#68

That was exactly my point. For $50, you're not going to get a 15C. You might get something with the functionality of the 15C, but it will have the look and feel of a cheap calculator, not the look and feel of a Voyager.

At $100, there won't be enough sales to make it worthwhile for HP. There *might* be enough sales to sustain a smaller company, though.

#69

Quote:
If there's anything out there for under $100 that's credible competition for a 15C, that's news to me.

Let me rephrase the question, then.

What features does a 15C have, that its current competitors don't have, and that people would pay for? And by competitors, don't just think 'calculators', think 'what people could use to solve the kinds of problems that a 15C could solve'; everything from Google and Excel to phoning a friend counts here.

I'm completely serious, and I'm not trying to do down 15C fans. I'm just trying to understand why some people seem to think there's a potential business in bringing it back, in some form.

Having gone through the exercise of trying to create a business plan a few years ago around RPN calculators, I just don't see it myself. When I vomit out a laundry list of barriers to making it happen, it's not because I'm some misery-guts, card-carrying member of the Anti-15C Party. It's just that I've thought about this kind of thing a lot over the last several years, and I'm buggered if I can see it being anything more than a hobby project at best, and three-alarm shirt-loser at worst.

I actually don't think even a smaller company than HP could bring back the 15C, because they would have the enormous additional burdens of creating and sustaining channels to market, since they wouldn't be able to insert their product into an existing sales programme for similar products. If you've never done this, it's easy to underestimate how hard it can be.

In particular, it's easy to imagine how successful your product will be once it's in Wal-Mart or John Lewis or Radio Shack, without realizing that it's practically impossible for a small company to get a new niche product onto the shelves of any major retailer. Selling online is probably the only way to start building a customer base these days, but that's no guarantee of success either, even if you get the likes of amazon.com to carry the product in return for most of your profit margin.

I'd be delighted to be proved wrong on all of this, because a part of me mourns the loss of HP product quality that got me into this business in the first place.

But I have to look forward, not back, and the future of portable computing is clearly in connected, tailored devices, not independent, user-programmable ones. Think smartphones and iPods.

A 15C-like calculator running on something like a Blackberry, and able to exchange data and programs online, is much more likely to be successful than any homage to a classic calculator whose time has passed. Cheaper to manufacture and distribute, as well. :-)

Edited: 18 Oct 2006, 8:38 p.m.


#70

Quote:


Let me rephrase the question, then.

What features does a 15C have, that its current competitors don't have, and that people would pay for?


My opinion is that the Voyager series acheived the most artful and useful compromise between compactness and power in a calculator that the world has seen up to now.

What I'd like to see would be a re-imagining of the calculator with that set of choices and compromises in mind.

Quote:
But I have to look forward, not back, and the future of portable computing is clearly in connected, tailored devices, not independent, user-programmable ones. Think smartphones and iPods.

What's missing in current "converged" devices is the keyboard, mainly. That's because the devices that are converging are the telephone and the computer. Hardly anyone is giving much thought to calculators as such. That may well be due to a lack of profit potential and/or sustainability in the marketplace, but it could also be the case that the folks driving the convergence just don't think about calculators much. However that may be, the result is that my XV6700 smart phone has a keyboard optimized for email and instant messaging, not for calculation. My clamshell Zaurus has a much nicer keyboard, but again, it's a QWERTY, not a calculator keyboard. The displays on both devices are optimized for web browsing, not for presentation of numeric or symbolic calculations and their respective results. (The gaps between those optimizations are smaller than the ones between the respective keyboards.)

I acknowledge all the difficulties you mention in getting a product to market. My head tells me that I'll have to look to large companies like HP to deliver anything like what I imagine. That's a long shot, but I'm an optimist. I also let my heart have as much free rein as I dare, and it says that it would beat faster if it saw a modern reinvention of the scientific calculator that incorporated the form factor of the Voyager line. My head, in its turn, observes that I'm not a completely atypical geek, and others like me might also get excited by such a machine.

Quote:

A 15C-like calculator running on something like a Blackberry, and able to exchange data and programs online, is much more likely to be successful than any homage to a classic calculator whose time has passed. Cheaper to manufacture and distribute, as well. :-)


Yes, but that still leaves an unserved market composed of folks who could benefit from a device optimized for calculation, rather than communication. It's not just the retrocalculator crowd that are missing out.

Regards,
Howard

#71

I only had an 8 hour day today!!!!!!!!!!!!!! i can read the hp forum. i can post. i can watch star trek reruns.

Frank; you said:

Quote:
The 12C has a prestige element to it that the 15C doesn't have, and is fitted into its buying community in a way that the 15C isn't

I agree, and if hp wants to cash in on that snob appeal among engineering types who use calculators (not autocad or it's ilk) to solve problems, then imho i think a better choice would be to make the next step in the 67-41-42 chain. To this day whupping out a 41 commands respect - or at least consideration of the number you are proposing. Still; i'll buy the next rpn scientific they make. I only use 4 functions most of the time now-a-days anyway.

Edited: 18 Oct 2006, 7:42 p.m.


#72

Quote:
I only had an 8 hour day today!!!!!!!!!!!!!! i can read the hp forum. i can post. i can watch star trek reruns.

Well, two out of three ain't bad.

You didn't miss much on Star Trek anyway; some alien bimbos kidnapped Scotty's liver to save the planet Hooch-still IV from sobering up. Oddly enough, nobody noticed until the Enterprise received a message demanding "more drink! And make it green!" McCoy then revealed to everyone the hitherto-secret fact that Scotty, like all Scots, actually has seven livers and eleven kidneys, so he was happy to use one of them to save a planet. Kirk still insisted on being the only one to snog the aliens, though, and managed to rip his shirt in the process. Again.


#73

Quote:
You didn't miss much on Star Trek anyway;

I beg to differ! This was the only episode in which Scotty could be seen using an HP calculator. There was only one brief glimpse of it in one of the scenes in sick bay, so it was hard to read the model number, but I think it was an HP 42SXXVI.


#74

Quote:
This was the only episode in which Scotty could be seen using an HP calculator. There was only one brief glimpse of it in one of the scenes in sick bay, so it was hard to read the model number, but I think it was an HP 42SXXVI.

Oo, I missed that. Is that where he picks it up and says to it "calculator...?" before typing in a huge formula for Cap'n Trelayne's Transparent Shandy?


#75

Frank; Thanks to my door prize from this years HHC, Jeremy Smith's Bum Bags and Fanny Packs, I now know about snogging and shandies. Only 9 hours today - and time for a ginger beer shandy. The snog will have to wait till Saturday. I love learning a new language.

Edited: 19 Oct 2006, 8:28 p.m.

#76

Dear fellow readers,

what do you think is the economic value for the user, if a "new & improved" programmable calculator doesn't provide a way to save AND install programs on/from an external medium (eg. via SD/MC card or USB) ???

As a proud owner of an HP 17BII+ and a HP49G+, I very much prefer the HP49G+ ONLY because it does allow for "saving" my work, despite the more natural programming interface & the better form-factor of the HP17BII+ ...

Best regards

Peter A. Gebhardt

Edited: 16 Oct 2006, 5:27 p.m.


#77

Hello!

Quote:
what do you think is the economic value for the user, if a "new & improved" programmable calculator doesn't provide a way to save AND install programs on/from an external medium (eg. via SD/MC card or USB) ???

I have asked myself the same question when playing around with the 33S (only for an hour, after which time I put it back into its blister packing and stuffed it in the wardrobe underneath my pyjamas where it can stay for the next 20 or 30 years...):
Who would waste hours entering 32kbytes of program and data into this thing, knowing it will all be lost when it crashes or runs out of battery?

Greetings, max


#78

The reason it has 32KB of user memory isn't because the user is expected to enter 32KB of program and data.

Rather, it's because the least expensive SRAM chip available was 32KB, and there was no reason to put in a 32KB chip but artificially limit the amount available to the user.

It thus becomse a bullet item for comparison shopping, even though it's not too useful.

#79

In the 21st Century US market, most potential calculator buyers assume that the term "programmable calculator" is synonymous with "graphing calculator." Any TI, Casio, or Sharp scientific calculator with programming capability also comes with a graphic display, alphanumerics, and a PC interface.

Like it or not, traditional programmable scientifics that lack such features are dinosaurs; they are about as marketable as DOS PCs. The HP-33S is the only one that has not become extinct. And the only reason that the 33S survives is that NCEES has created an artificial niche market for it, by banning calculators with alphanumeric and I/O capability on licensing exams.

#80

I think the best we can hope for is a revised HP 33s. Personally, I would be somewhat happy if they lost the chevron styling and bad color scheme, and did something to improve the programming capabilites. I wonder if they could a couple of steps (in terms of programming capability) towards the HP 42s and still be acceptable to the NCEES.

The bottom line is that those of us who have calculators from HP during the "good old days" find the current offerings a bitter pill to swallow considering quality and product design. We hope that the older models will be re-released, but unfortunatley it's probably not going to happen.

Anyway, the model I would like to see re-released would be the
HP 42s. In my dream world I would like to see an HP 42Sii that would support fractions and have an equation editor and solver according to the HP 32sii, have something like a USB connection, and have a dsiplay that was more readable. You guys don't have to give me a market analysis as to why that's not going to happen.


#81

As much as I like HP41/42s and have enjoyed their keystroke programming, a new calc could perhaps easily deviate from that.

Something in the formfactor of an HP12C but with HP71B BASIC + Math/matrix ROM and yet RPN calculator for direct number work would be ideal.

HP71B BASIC with some more math support from ROMs was very very nice.
This could easily be emulated over to a new CPU...

Bill Wiese


San Jose

#82

I may have missed something, but isn't the openrpn project aiming at making something along the lines of what people and describing here?

(I tried going to their site recently, but only found some stuff about starfix.)


#83

Unfortunately, OpenRPN is another case of Vaporware:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaporware


#84

Final negotiations are still underway, but I'm presently facing a 2000+ mile relocation to San Diego within the next 5 weeks. In the short term that means you get to look at our SF page. This move also means I'll be attending HHC2007 along with some solid-phase, rather than vapor, items.


#85

Congratulations, I hope this move is good news for you.

I also very much like the possibility to see some nice hardware from you. Since last time I soldered stuff, I know I won't throw the first stone ever.

#86

Well, we've already seen Eric Smith's real calculators at HHC2006 with promises to have even better units before then.

After, what ?, 2-3 years, of OpenRPN work, hopefully you'll have quite a bit to show us at HHC2007 in San Diego.


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