I think some of your comments were spot on.
I think many confuse short term with long term and their thoughts with the thoughts and needs of the other 6.6 billion people.
My long term thoughts:
People that cannot see how life cannot exist without a calculator or tactile feedback lack vision. People adapt, e.g. I thought I'd would have hated the touch screen iPhone, well now I love it and can use it faster than a physical calculator. My fingers glide effortlessly over the display just enough to not invoke a keystroke. Then when I reach the desired function my finger drops the width of a hair. My feedback is an audible click and a flash of light. It took me sometime, but I adapted. Imagine the hordes of adults to be that start this way, and then expose them to a clunky keyboard. You'll get comments like, "why so many keys, I want auto context buttons/icons", "why it is so hard to zoom the graphics, why can I not just use two fingers to expand it", etc...
Kids 50 years from now with brain to I/O interfaces (no joke, Google for it) will wonder how to use the device, just like most today will wonder how to work a slide ruler or an abacus.
Calculators will be replaced by something that is not an emulator but something better at solving the original problem. A paradigm shift.
My short term thoughts:
The number of mobile phone subscribers is estimated to be 4 billion by year end (http://www.itu.int/newsroom/press_releases/2008/29.html). Without a doubt it is the personal computing platform of choice. The mobile phone may be the #1 selling 4 banger too.
Calculator sales will only diminish in schools when schools and testing centers adopt computer aided testing. Some certifications use this, everything you need is on the computer and is tightly controlled.
I have to imagine that an iPhone with GPS and a 12C is a realtor's dream machine.
Eventually computer aided engineering software will reach all aspects of engineering and will continue to diminish the use of calculators. I would argue now that is the engineers choice, not a requirement.
Every programmer I know stopped using calculators years ago.
Clearly its going to be different for different fields, but eventually:
calculator volumes
lim ------------------ = 0
time -> oo time
The only point that I am making is that things change. Ask yourself, do you use a calculator because you have to, or that you choose to? I'll bet that every MoHPC citizen can live without their calculators. Alternatives exist and will improve over time, some will adapt others will not, and our kid's kids will choose the established standard of the time.
Just my:
lim Cold_Hard_Cash(US Economy) = $0
US Economy -> Toilet
Edited: 23 Dec 2008, 1:43 p.m.